I like grounded content more than off-the-cuff opinion pieces but I felt it might be a bit fun (for me at least) to put up some predictions and thoughts around the Steamdeck as it's new entry into the portable gaming space. To be honest this might be a little too selfish and just garbage click-bait list style content for anyone else but whatever, it's an experiment. The idea is that I feel I have an understanding about the gaming industry and can thus make decent predictions. But I want it to be granular and accountable. It's easy to say "I called it" especially with an unnuanced opinion on whether something will "succeed" or not. Instead I want to call what people will like and dislike about it, what problems will exist and what things will be unimportant. I also want to do it before there are any sales figures to bias my own recollection about being on the correct side of history so I can look back and judge myself somewhat objectively. Steamdeck is good concept to try this on because it has a pretty open-ended trajectory and seems to have some amount of initial hype going for it to make it interesting.
There will be launch issues and Valve will handle them poorly
I think this is a given. All consoles have this, some worse than others. While I won't venture to guess what the problems could be I think given Valve's track record it won't deal with them very well and some people will get upset.
x86 is a boat anchor
I think this will be an issue. It's an ARM world now and I just don't see x86 having the right trade-offs for something this small. Specifically I think battery life might suffer.
Linux creates problems
Linux compounds the above problem. Since games have to run through proton they will be sipping even more overhead. It creates an odd chicken-and-egg problem too. Why invest in Linux ports if Proton is actually good? I don't see many devs going the native route.
Compatibility creates confusion
I think this one is well covered but there will be gaps where the particular game is not supported for some reason. For less experienced users this will be frustrating. I think at least in some cases fans might be able to lobby for incompatible games to get attention though.
PC games aren't a fit for portables
Valve is certainly giving many control options but that seems like a bit of a band-aid. These won't work quite as well in terms of control but even more-so games will have general usability problems. PC games can already have a tough time with things like text size, games shrunk down to a 7 inch screen they were never tested on are going to have issues. In fact games that work well on portables are designed that way taking into account how they are played in shorted bursts and I think people will gain a healthier appreciation for that.
Existing Steam libraries will be less interesting than they sound
Backwards compatibility is always the most wanted feature and least utilized. People mostly want new games and exclusives. This isn't to say Steam won't have exclusives but unless they are optimized I'm not sure it will matter much. I think people will try out games on their new device but will mostly tire of it and stick to their PCs.
Alternate OS won't be too appealing
Most people won't change the OS. In fact, I think few people realize that a Windows license costs about $140 if you don't already have one from a PC build. Windows 10 is yet another thing that sucks battery as it's designed to do a lot more than a mobile OS. I'm not sure Windows is good experience on such a small device either. In any case I think running Windows specifically won't actually be much of a thing after launch.
Storage space for PC games will be a problem
PC games can get upwards of 100GB. There is no real thought given to size which means storage will be a big factor. PC games simply don't optimize this way. You might be using low-end textures but still need the space to store the high-quality versions because platform-specific bundles aren't a thing on PC. Even with larger sizes people will run into problems and SSDs are expensive. It'll be hard to justify spending $400 for adequate storage.
The device is unappealingly complex to mainstream audiences, underutilized even with enthusiasts
Multiple touchpads seems like a mistake. It makes the unit a lot bigger. I understand it's to make things more PC compatible but that's the issue itself. Back paddles are overkill too. Ideally a single touchscreen should have been enough to deal with most pointer-centric games. Certainly configuring controls for every game is going to be an annoyance. But I also think that some of the controls like the backpaddles won't get much use.
Configuration gets tiring
The configuration only gets worse on a handheld where untested DPI and power settings come into play in addition to the above control issues. Nobody wants to spend the time setting that up and tweaking the graphics to work. I suspect users will find this to be a burden for playing and community config sharing will be crucial but higher profile games might come with dedicated Steamdeck settings.
It will be a bit too big
It's even bigger than a switch which is already pushing into tablet territory. I'm sure people will make it work but it seems to be pushing the size barrier to it's limits. People will want a smaller version.
Video out/docking stations aren't a big deal and go underutilized
I think most PC gamers own PCs. I don't think the type of gamer looking to get into PC games starts here. So they probably do have a PC or bigger screen device that can play similar games. I don't think people will really be that interested in buying docks, or at least they will initially but it will die down. I'm not super confident in this prediction though. Kids don't grow up with PCs as much so maybe this really is the way in for them?
People will find interesting alternate ways to use it
While I'm skeptical of Windows on the device I think some enthusiasts will find interesting ways to use the Steamdeck beyond gaming, I just don't know what that is yet.
Certain games will have special appeal
There will be some specifically optimized games and these games will get a boost from being associated with Steamdeck. I think the best parts of Steamdeck will actually look more like what consoles like Switch do well currently with specific developer intent.
It will be a good system for emulation
100% safe bet, this has been said about literally every device ever.
It will last long enough for revisions
I think even if it dies out they will get at least one upgrade out of it.
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